A Modern Approach for Constructing Decision Analytic Models in Microsoft Excel

Read Tutorial

Download Supplementary Material

I've published a 10,000 word peer-reviewed tutorial in Pharmacoeconomics outlining how Markov cohort models can be constructed for health technology assessment using the dynamic array capabilities of modern spreadsheet software.

Say farewell to complex spreadsheets with hundreds of formulas and lengthy Visual Basic macros. Neither of these are necessary anymore.

This tutorial teaches you how to construct efficient probabilistic Markov models using just a handful of formulas and no macros.

Learn how to calculate a Markov trace using a single formula in one cell. Learn how to conduct Monte Carlo simulation over thousands of iterations using a single formula in one cell. And learn how to create common outputs, such as the table of CEAC probabilities, using a single formula in one cell.

These and other template formulas are provided in the tutorial, along with an example spreadsheet demonstrating their use. These can be easily copied into your own model - no add-ons, plug-ins or packages required.

I've published a 10,000 word peer-reviewed tutorial in Pharmacoeconomics outlining how Markov cohort models can be constructed for health technology assessment using the dynamic array capabilities of modern spreadsheet software.

Say farewell to complex spreadsheets with hundreds of formulas and lengthy Visual Basic macros. Neither of these are necessary anymore.

This tutorial teaches you how to construct efficient probabilistic Markov models using just a handful of formulas and no macros.

Learn how to calculate a Markov trace using a single formula in one cell. Learn how to conduct Monte Carlo simulation over thousands of iterations using a single formula in one cell. And learn how to create common outputs, such as the table of CEAC probabilities, using a single formula in one cell.

These and other template formulas are provided in the tutorial, along with an example spreadsheet demonstrating their use. These can be easily copied into your own model - no add-ons, plug-ins or packages required.

Read Tutorial

Download Supplementary Material

A New Workshop Series on Building Efficient Models in Excel, R, Python and Julia

Get Notified When Virtual Workshops Launch

Building upon this tutorial, I'm also developing a series of new half-day workshops that help students and professionals - including absolute beginners - learn how to build efficient Markov cohort models using both modern spreadsheets and statistical programming languages such as R, Python and Julia.

These workshops use an entirely new, custom-built platform that allows you to build a model step-by-step, with immediate visual feedback provided following every edit made to your spreadsheet.

The next in-person workshops will be held at Macquarie University Centre for the Health Economy in Sydney from 29 April to 1 May 2026. Please click here for details.

In June 2026 I'll be launching virtual workshops, including embedded video tutorials, which you'll be able to complete in your own time from anywhere in the world.

I've also developed a series of new hands-on workshops for students and professionals that help you learn how to build clean and efficient Markov cohort models using spreadsheets and statistical programming languages such as R, Python and Julia.

Since launching the first workshop in September 2025, I've delivered in-person workshops to hundreds of students and professionals across three continents.

These workshops use an entirely new, custom-built platform that teaches you how to build models step-by-step, with feedback provided following every change you make to your spreadsheet.

The next in-person workshops will be held at Macquarie University Centre for the Health Economy in Sydney from 29 April to 1 May 2026. Please click here for details.

I'll soon be launching virtual workshops, including embedded video tutorials, which you can complete in your own time from anywhere in the world. Click below to be notified when these workshops are launched.

Building upon this tutorial, I'm also developing a series of new half-day workshops that help students and professionals - including absolute beginners - learn how to build efficient Markov cohort models using both modern spreadsheets and statistical programming languages such as R, Python and Julia.

These workshops use an entirely new, custom-built platform that allows you to build a model step-by-step, with immediate visual feedback provided following every edit made to your spreadsheet.

The next in-person workshops will be held at Macquarie University Centre for the Health Economy in Sydney from 29 April to 1 May 2026. Please click here for details.

In June 2026 I'll be launching virtual workshops, including embedded video tutorials, which you'll be able to complete in your own time from anywhere in the world.

Get Notified When Virtual Workshops Launch

Mike Paulden, PhD
Associate Professor, School of Public Health, University of Alberta

I've been a health economics researcher for almost two decades, with an interest in developing new methods for economic evaluations of health technologies.

I've published over 75 peer-reviewed papers, including novel approaches for determining fair prices for medicines and the social rate of time preference for health.

I'm also an experienced educator. I've developed multiple health economics classes, courses and workshops, and delivered them to hundreds of students and professionals. I've published tutorials to help students calculate ICERs and measures of net benefit, and to better understand cost-effectiveness thresholds. I've also contributed a chapter to the Encyclopedia of Health Economics, and to a textbook on Distributional Cost-Effectiveness Analysis.